The longlist for the 'best novel' category is, as usual, ridiculously long and I can't be arsed posting it here. There's no point debating this list anyway, since the nominations mean nothing - it's only when the shortlist is created that the debate can begin. You can check out the nominees here.
It's worth listing the nominees for the 'best debut' category, since there's only a few (making analysis much easier). Here they are:
The Sad Tale of the Brothers Grossbart - Jesse Bullington (Orbit)Lamentation - Ken Scholes (Tor US)
The Dwarves - Markus Heitz (Orbit)
The Adamantine Palace - Stephen Deas (Gollancz)
Blood of Ambrose - James Enge (PYR)
The Drowning City - Amanda Downum (Orbit)
The Cardinals’ Blades - Pierre Pevel (Gollancz)
Servant of a Dark God - John Brown (Tor US)
Midwinter - Matthew Sturges (PYR)
My money is on either The Adamantine Palace, The Dwarves or The Cardinal's Blades to win this award. The Adamantine Palace has apparently sold pretty well and received some decent coverage online, so I expect a strong showing from Stephen Deas' debut novel. As for The Cardinal's Blades and The Dwarves, it's worth noting that their respective authors, Pierre Pevel and Markus Heitz, are both established continental authors who are eligible for this award as both books represent their first English translations, so they count as debuts. Sapkowski was largely propelled to victory last year on the back of votes from overseas readers, and I just wonder whether the same thing might happen this year in Pevel's or Heitz's favour. Time will tell...
As for the others: Servant of a Dark God and The Drowning City haven't been out that long, so I doubt whether they've got a big enough following, while Blood of Ambrose and Midwinter didn't seem to cause much of a stir (from the reviews I've read, both seem mediocre offerings). The Sad Tale of the Brothers Grossbart is an odd one; from what I've read it apparently has minimal fantastical elements, but I don't know much else about it. Lamentation might be an outside bet, but I'm not sure whether it will receive much backing from UK readers (then again, with most votes coming from outside the UK this might not matter).
If you're wondering where Nights of Villjamur is, it's not eligible for inclusion since it's not Mark Charan Newton's debut novel. It is instead in the mix for the main award for 'best novel'.